There are several studies and resources that explore guest retention in churches and the factors that motivate people to either stay or keep searching for a church home. While no single study perfectly encapsulates every aspect of this topic, I can highlight key findings from reputable sources and research that address the questions of church guest retention strategies. These insights are drawn from church growth experts, empirical studies, and practical observations widely discussed in the field.

One foundational resource comes from Gary McIntosh and Charles Arn, authors of What Every Pastor Should Know. Their research suggests that guest retention rates vary significantly depending on a church’s growth trajectory. Non-growing churches retain about 9% of first-time guests, while growing churches retain around 21%. They note that retention increases with subsequent visits: about 20% of first-time guests stay in growing churches, 40% of second-time guests, and nearly 60% of third-time guests become regular attendees. What motivates people to return? The study points to intentional hospitality and follow-up efforts, such as personal contact within 48 hours of a visit, which can increase return rates by up to 75%. This suggests that feeling noticed and welcomed is a key motivator for guests.

Nelson Searcy, in his book Fusion: Turning First-Time Guests into Fully-Engaged Members of Your Church, provides further insight based on his work with churches. He estimates an average retention rate of 5% (1 out of 20 guests) for churches without a strong assimilation strategy but argues that a goal of 33% (1 out of 3) is achievable with deliberate effort. Searcy identifies three critical questions guests ask: “Will I feel welcomed?” “Will my kids love it here?” (for parents), and “What’s the next step?” Churches that excel in creating a warm environment, offering a strong children’s ministry, and providing clear, immediate next steps (e.g., texting a number to connect) see higher retention. This indicates that practical, relational, and family-oriented factors heavily influence whether people stay.

Another useful perspective comes from the Faith Communities Today (FACT) report, which examines broader trends in church attendance and retention. The study highlights two controllable factors that attract and retain visitors: vitality (a sense of energy and purpose in the church) and intentionality (deliberate efforts to connect with newcomers). Churches that demonstrate a lively, mission-driven community and actively engage guests—rather than leaving connection to chance—are more likely to see people return. This aligns with the idea that guests are motivated by a sense of belonging and purpose, not just a one-off experience.

A more academic angle is offered in an empirical study from ResearchGate titled “Increasing Church Member Satisfaction and Retention” (1999). This research, conducted with a midwestern denominational church, used surveys to identify ten underlying dimensions of member satisfaction, which also apply to guests deciding whether to stay. Key motivators included the quality of worship (e.g., uplifting sermons and music), the church environment (e.g., welcoming atmosphere), and opportunities for involvement. The study found that dissatisfied attendees often left due to unmet expectations in these areas, suggesting that guests keep searching when churches fail to deliver on these core experiences.

Finally, practical insights from church leaders like Thom Rainer (Church Answers) and Dan Reiland emphasize relational and experiential factors. Rainer notes that guest retention can increase sixfold with simple steps like timely follow-ups and avoiding “insider language” that alienates newcomers. Reiland lists seven reasons guests return, including feeling God’s presence, trusting the leadership, and experiencing genuine love from the congregation. These suggest that spiritual connection, authenticity, and personal care are powerful motivators for staying.

In summary, studies and expert analyses consistently show that guest retention in churches hinges on a mix of relational, practical, and spiritual factors. People are motivated to stay when they feel welcomed and noticed (e.g., through follow-ups), sense a vibrant community with purpose, trust the leadership, and find a good fit for their families—especially their kids. Conversely, they keep searching when these needs go unmet, whether due to poor hospitality, lack of clarity, or an uninspiring experience. For more specific data, you might look into Searcy’s Fusion or McIntosh and Arn’s work, as they provide actionable frameworks based on real church observations.